Temperature and timing is going to be the deciding factor of how much we will get. The system is ahead of model forecast, so models are out the window, when you start seeing snow flakes it will be snowing (that's the red neck version) going to be using radar and satelite to see how things will play out. Looks like my gut will be wrong on the higher totals, oh well go figure. The NWS Weather Outlook up to date and always changing.
US precipitation map for this morning 12/24/10
Current radar this morning.
Curent tracks on the radar show the Northern part going easternly in direction and will not effect our area areas as much as to the west of us and to the south. The most effect on our snow totals will come from the tail of the northern portion and the southern flow. May have amounts smaller than a inch to the south. Calvert may fall somewhere between the 1 inch and 1.5 inches in totals are my thoughts but are subject to change time will tell.
What is hitting the ground in Chester, MO
Current temps as of this morning
Temperatures will go above freezing today wind chill assist in getting the white stuff to stick to trees, grass but should not effect roads currently if it were to start during the daylight hours. Below is the current weather on the road on I 24 at the Cumberland river Bridge.
As the stuff starts to fall I will keep you updated. Keep a eye to the sky.
OK, I'm going to put my neck out here on this coming winter event for Christmas, first of all things are pointing to a White Christmas, predictive amounts have went back and forth as to how much and when. Most model forecast are saying between 1 and 2 inches some say 4-6 inches. Timing has change as well from early Christmas eve to late Christmas Eve to possible early Christmas morning. This storm has all the tell tale signs of producing quite a bit more snow given the slow progress of it and the fact it may tap into some southern moisture, this is no model data or anything I'm being told it's just plain old gut feeling we will get more than what is being forecasters are saying for now. I have no qualms with saying this take it for what its worth. No offense to weather forecasters but we can be some of the biggest liers around, do we do it intentionally no, do we make mistakes, yes. Part of being human. Sorry, if I get it wrong and great if you are prepared and it's right. Below is current weather maps from the last hour as well as model data.
Current US weather map's below Thursdays.
Thursdays satellite image
GFS Model Data for Christmas Day
Check out my Weather Links site for the forecast of temperature and and conditions just click on the Weather and Plants Links Radar map to the top right of this page.
Christmas snow chances historically have been in the 5-25% range of seeing a White Christmas,depends on where you live in the area, this information according to National Weather Service data http://www.crh.noaa.gov/pah/?n=whitechristmas .
So how's it looking for a white Christmas, depends on the model you look at and I have been looking at them for the last few weeks there is a chance a little white stuff on Christmas. It is still a way off for exactly how things will play out. This one could be big one or it could be just small flurries. Now what do I mean? Depends on when the precipitation and temperature come together will determine what we will get. If you remember the one in 2004 was not forecasted to be as severe either. Things can change quickly if all the elements come together, moisture, temperature and wind.
This Model below has changed back and forth the last couple of weeks on precipitation have to see how it plays out in the next few days.
Below are the model temperatures going on at the same time. The temps start above freezing and then go down.
Time will tell will re post something in the next few days.