Snow shots

Wanted to share some of the snow falliing here on Christmas Eve.

Manhattan Euonymous in it Christmas cover

Out front

China Hollies in Christmas dress

another snot

side of house

Benton Ky web camera shot.

White Christmas

White Christmas?

Updated info

Temperature and timing is going to be the deciding factor of how much we will get. The system is ahead of model forecast, so models are out the window, when you start seeing snow flakes it will be snowing (that's the red neck version) going to be using radar and satelite to see how things will play out. Looks like my gut will be wrong on the higher totals, oh well go figure. The NWS Weather Outlook up to date and always changing.

US precipitation map for this morning 12/24/10

Current radar this morning.

Curent tracks on the radar show the Northern part going easternly in direction and will not effect our area areas as much as to the west of us and to the south. The most effect on our snow totals will come from the tail of the northern portion and the southern flow. May have amounts smaller than a inch to the south. Calvert may fall somewhere between the 1 inch and 1.5 inches in totals are my thoughts but are subject to change time will tell.

What is hitting the ground in Chester, MO

Current temps as of this morning

Temperatures will go above freezing today wind chill assist in getting the white stuff to stick to trees, grass but should not effect roads currently if it were to start during the daylight hours. Below is the current weather on the road on I 24 at the Cumberland river Bridge.

As the stuff starts to fall I will keep you updated. Keep a eye to the sky.

White Christmas

White Christmas Outlook continued

OK, I'm going to put my neck out here on this coming winter event for Christmas, first of all things are pointing to a White Christmas, predictive amounts have went back and forth as to how much and when.  Most model forecast are saying between 1 and 2 inches some say 4-6 inches.   Timing has change as well from early Christmas eve to late Christmas Eve to possible early Christmas morning.  This storm has all the tell tale signs of producing quite a bit more snow given the slow progress of it and the fact it may tap into some southern moisture,  this is no model data or anything I'm being told it's just plain old gut feeling we will get more than what is being forecasters are saying for now.  I have no qualms with saying this take it for what its worth.  No offense to weather forecasters but we can be some of the biggest liers around, do we do it intentionally no, do we make mistakes, yes.  Part of being human.  Sorry, if I get it wrong and great if you are prepared and it's right.   Below is current weather maps from the last hour as well as model data. 

Current US weather map's below Thursdays.

Thursdays satellite image

Thursday Forecast

GFS Model Data for Christmas Day

Check out my Weather Links site for the forecast of temperature and and conditions just click on the Weather and Plants Links Radar map to the top right of this page.



Christmas outlook

White Christmas Outlook

Christmas snow chances historically have been in the  5-25% range of seeing a White Christmas,depends on  where you live in the area, this information according to National Weather Service data http://www.crh.noaa.gov/pah/?n=whitechristmas .

  So how's it looking for a white Christmas, depends on the model you look at and I have been looking at them for the last few weeks there is a chance a little white stuff on Christmas.  It is still a way off for exactly how things will play out.  This one could be big one or it could be just small flurries.  Now what do I mean?  Depends on when the precipitation and temperature come together will determine what we will get.  If you remember the one in 2004 was not forecasted to be as severe either.  Things can change quickly if all the elements come together, moisture, temperature and wind.

This Model below has changed back and forth the last couple of weeks on precipitation have to see how it plays out in the next few days.

Below are the model temperatures going on at the same time. The temps start above freezing and then go down.

Time will tell will re post something in the next few days.

Weekend and Weekly Forecast

Good morning after a few days off needed to get back to things again.  Foggy this morning, not good if you are hunting or driving should burn off by 9 AM? .  May take a while for the fog to burn off.

Forecast for the week today warmer temps in the 60's partly cloudy.

Sunday, sun early temps 60's may reach 70 depending on when the sun disappears. Chance of Rain overnight and into Monday - Wednesday.  Cloudy for sometime I'm afraid  Thursday the warm temps leave us and a cold front stays with us for several days bring a coat and long johns for Black Friday Sales.

Monday warm temps in to the 70's lows in the 50's good chance of precipitation overnight.
Tuesday temps mostly cloudy  highs in 60's lows in 50's chance of rain.
Wednesday mostly cloudy highs in the 50's chance of thunderstorms lows in the 30's
Thursday Thanksgiving Day Sunny Cold temps in the 30's
Friday clear highs in 40's lows in the 30's

As stated in prior Blogs rain chances coming up this week looks to start a trend and start making a dent into the moisture deficit.  See graph below for this weeks amount of rain predictions.

National Weather Service daily forecast

 

Below is updated features related to La Nina in the Pacific Ocean. thought it was cool and anything animated gets my attention and self updating

If the weather changes I will let you know

 

Winter Preparedness Week Day 4

Winter Preparedness Week

Day 4 of Winter Awareness Week in Kentucky and several surrounding states with the exception of Missouri which is November 17th.  Below is the from Paducah National Weather Service. 
 The temperatures will be cooler this week with some mornings will be frosty this week.  Thursday night/ Friday maybe the coldest morning. Warmer more seasonal temps return for the weekend.  Rain may return late Wednesday.   Maybe another chance on 21st and 22nd we will see as it gets near those dates. 

Daily Weather Discussion from NWS it changes daily

From the West Kentucky Star

It's Winter Weather Preparedness Week

By Barry Wright

PADUCAH, KY - Winter is a little over a month away, and it's not too early for you to start turning your attention toward wintry weather. Forecasters at the National Weather Service office in Paducah will spend this week informing you about the threat of winter hazards during Winter Weather Preparedness Week, which runs now through Saturday. Mike York is the National Weather Service Paducah Winter Weather Program Leader. He says forecasters are predicting that we will have a La Nina winter this year. “And what that means for our area, typically in a La Nina winter, we have I guess you would call it highly variable weather where we have some snow, but we also tend to have more severe thunderstorms in the wintertime during La Ninas,” York said. “So one of the things we are advising the public is to be ready for the possibility of tornadoes this winter. It’s happened before. We had them in 1999. We had quite a bit of severe weather, severe thunderstorms that winter, and that’s something that we need to keep in the back of our minds as we go through this winter.” York says weather records show that snowfall during La Ninas actually is about average. Now during Winter Weather Preparedness Week, York says there will be a different wintry topic addressed each day on the Paducah National Weather Service web page (link below). On the Net: Paducah Weather Service webpage

Published 09:00 PM, Sunday Nov. 14, 2010 Updated 06:24 AM, Tuesday Nov. 16, 2010

I will try and keep you updated this week with different Winter Weather topics daily this week to promote preparedness.  I know many were unprepared during the one in 2009 including myself.

If the weather changes I will let you know

Day 3 Winter Weather Preparedness

Winter Preparedness Week

Day 3 of Winter Awareness Week in Kentucky and several surrounding states with the exception of Missouri which is November 17th.  Below is the from Paducah National Weather Service. 
 The temperatures will be cooler this week with some mornings will be frosty this week.  Thursday night/ Friday maybe the coldest morning.  Rain coming on Tuesday and Wednesday.   Maybe another chance on 21st and 22nd we will see as it gets near those dates. 

Remember: the key to surviving a winter storm is to BE PREPARED AHEAD OF TIME.

Preparedness Tips

For yourself, you can:

• Check with your doctor or pharmacist about your prescription drugs. They may increase vulnerability to cold.
• Check on elderly and disabled people living alone. Make sure they are prepared for winter conditions.
• Stock up on non-alcoholic beverages like tea, coffee, hot chocolate and soup.
• Maintain good nutrition and get plenty of rest.

At your home or business:

• Have your furnace and wall heaters checked by a professional for safety.
• Check all space heaters and keep them away from walls, curtains, and furniture.
• If you have a gas heater or any gas appliances, invest in a carbon monoxide detector. (Carbon monoxide kills about 300 people in the U.S. every year.)
• Replace the batteries in all of your smoke detectors and test the smoke alarms to make sure they work.
• Check the batteries in your NOAA Weather Radio.

Fully check and winterize your vehicle before the winter season begins:

• Give your vehicle a tune-up.
• Check the tires, brakes, and battery.
• Check the heating and defrosting system.
• Check your windshield wipers and keep your washer fluid full.
• Change the anti-freeze, if needed, to protect the engine and radiator from freezing in cold temperatures.
• Keep your gas tank near full to avoid ice in the tank and fuel lines.
• Pack and carry a winter storm survival kit, including:
  
  • blankets or sleeping bags
  • additional warm clothing
  • a flashlight with extra batteries
  • a first-aid kit
  • a knife
  • high-calorie, non-perishable food such as candy bars
  • a small can and water-proof matches to melt snow for drinking
  • a bag of sand or cat litter
  • a shovel
  • a windshield scraper and brush
  • and booster cables

You may also consider carrying a portable NOAA weather radio in your vehicle to keep track of changing weather conditions when you are on-the-go.
And don't forget your outdoor pets and livestock:
Make sure they have a source of water that will not freeze and a warm place to take shelter from the wind and cold. And make sure they have enough food available for a prolonged cold spell or a snowstorm.



I will try and keep you updated this week with different Winter Weather topics daily this week to promote preparedness.  I know many were unprepared during the one in 2009 including myself.

If the weather changes I will let you know

Daily Weather Discussion from NWS it changes daily

Do you know the difference? NWAW

Day 2 of Winter Awareness Week in Kentucky and several surrounding states with the exception of Missouri which is November 17th.  Below is the from Paducah National Weather Service. 
 The temperatures will be cooler this week with some mornings will be frosty this week.  Thursday night/ Friday maybe the coldest morning.  Rain chances for this week look low with chances on Tuesday and Wednesday.   Maybe another chance on 21st and 22nd we will see as it gets near those dates. 

Daily Weather Discussion from NWS it changes daily

Do you know what it means when you are in a winter weather watch, advisory, or warning?

A winter storm watch is issued to give advance notice when a significant winter storm may affect your area within 18 to 72 hours. A watch will often be issued when there is still uncertainty in the path and strength of a developing winter storm. Usually the winter storm watch will be upgraded to a warning when the nature and location of the weather event become more apparent. In any case, when a watch is issued for your area, it is time to prepare for severe winter weather.

When severe winter weather is imminent or already occurring, a warning will be issued.

The most dangerous of all winter storms is the blizzard. The deadly combination of fierce winds and snow reduces visibility to near zero and creates wind chills well below zero. A blizzard warning is issued when winds of 35 miles an hour will occur in combination with considerable falling and/or blowing snow for at least 3 hours. Visibilities will frequently be reduced to less than 1/4 mile.

Winter Storm Warnings are issued for other severe winter weather, including:

• snowfall of 6 inches or more in 12 hours or 8 inches in 24 hours,
• a dangerous coating of ice (usually 1/4 inch thick or more),
• 1/2 inch or more of sleet accumulation
• and/or life-threatening wind chills reaching minus 30 or lower.

Advisories highlight weather that will cause significant inconvenience, but (if caution is exercised) should not be life-threatening. Advisories may be issued for one or several of the following conditions:

• 3 to 5 inches of snow
• ice accumulations less than 1/4 inch,
• blowing snow significantly reducing visibilities,
• hazardous drifting of snow,
• and/or wind chills from -20 to -29 degrees Fahrenheit.

So now that we've covered all of the details, the important thing to understand about watches, warnings, and advisories, is that:

• a WATCH means it's time to get ready,
• an ADVISORY means that conditions are hazardous,
• and a WARNING means the situation is life-threatening.

I will try and keep you updated this week with different Winter Weather topics daily this week to promote preparedness.  I know many were unprepared during the one in 2009 including myself.

If the weather changes I will let you know

Winter Weather Awareness

Tomorrow begins Winter Awareness Week in Kentucky and several surrounding states with the exception of Missouri which is November 17th.  Below is the from Paducah National Weather Service. 

Today's Topic: Ice Storms - Winter's Destructive Power

Still fresh in the minds of most Kentuckians, the ice storm of January 26-28, 2009 wreaked havoc on the state's utility infrastructure. The total number of outages set a new state record. The duration of the outages was generally on the order of three to five days for city dwellers, but some rural residents endured weeks without power. Scenes like the one pictured below were the norm across the state. (Photo from Trisha Noble, Shepherdsville, KY, Jan. 2009). 

Shelters filled up as residents sought refuge from their cold, dark homes. A number of fatalities were indirectly blamed on the storm. Fires were caused by improper use of alternate heating or lighting sources. Hypothermia cases spiked. Improper use of generators caused real problems, including carbon monoxide poisoning.  

While many Kentuckians are more prepared for ice storms, we must remain vigilant and ready to help those who are not. Here is what you can do next time an ice storm strikes:

KNOW what to expect: Heavy accumulations of ice can bring down trees and topple utility poles and communication towers. Ice can disrupt communications and power for days while utility companies repair extensive damage. Even small accumulations of ice can be extremely dangerous to motorists and pedestrians. Bridges and overpasses are particularly dangerous because they freeze before other surfaces.

STAY INFORMED: NOAA Weather Radio is the best means to receive warnings from the National Weather Service. The National Weather Service continuously broadcasts warnings and forecasts that can be received by NOAA Weather Radios, which are sold in many stores. The average range is 40 miles, depending on topography. Purchase a radio that has a battery back-up and a Specific Area Message Encoder feature, which automatically alerts you when a watch or warning is issued for your county.
At home or at work -  Make sure you have:

• Extra flashlights and batteries
• A battery-powered NOAA Weather Radio or AM/FM portable radio
• Extra food and water (2-3 day supply)
• Extra medicine and baby items
• First Aid supplies
• Emergency Heating source**
• Carbon Monoxide Detector

** If you use an emergency heating source, be alert for deadly carbon monoxide gases and never place it near another object that may catch on fire.  Many house fires during the winter are caused by incorrect use of a space heater.  Keep the space heater at least 36 inches away from other objects and turn it off if you leave the room.
TRAVELLING - Avoid doing so if possible. If you must travel:

• Watch for low-hanging or downed power lines and tree limbs.
• Keep in mind that road conditions may be extremely variable. Bridges become icy first.
• Carry a winter survival kit in your vehicle in case you become stuck. The contents of a winter survival kit include...
  • Extra blankets or sleeping bag
  • Flashlight with extra batteries
  • First Aid kit with pocket knife
  • Booster cables
  • A rope
  • A small shovel
  • A bag of sand or cat litter for traction
  • Plastic bags (for sanitation)
  • Extra gloves, hat, and socks
  • Non-perishable food items and bottled water
  • Road maps (for alternative routes) 

EXTRA INFO: Ever wonder how and why different precipitation types occur in the same winter storm? The graphic below may help explain. In short, it depends on the thickness and temperature of sub-freezing layers within the atmospheric column. These layers can change rather quickly in a short distance. (Image and text below courtesy of the NWS JetStream project).

Freezing rain will occur if the warm layer in the atmosphere is deep with only a shallow layer of below freezing air at the surface. The precipitation can begin as either rain and/or snow but becomes all rain in the warm layer. The rain falls back into the air that is below freezing but since the depth is shallow, the rain does not have time to freeze into sleet.
Upon hitting the ground or objects such as bridges and vehicles, the rain freezes on contact. Some of the most disastrous winter weather storms are due primarily to freezing rain.









The temperatures will be cooler this week with some mornings will be frosty this week.  Thursday night/ Friday maybe the cold est morning.  Rain chances for this week look low with chances on Tuesday and Wednesday.   Maybe another chance on 21st and 22nd we will see as it gets near those dates. 

Daily Weather Discussion from NWS it changes daily

I will try and keep you updated this week with different Winter Weather topics daily this week to promote preparedness.  I know many were unprepared during the one in 2009 including myself.

If the weather changes I will let you know



Cold Only Temporary

Brrr... is the best way to describe last nights and this mornings temperatures.  Temperatures  dropped to freezing about 11 PM last night and have not reached the thaw point till about 8 AM this morning. 

In this weeks forecast  warmer temps and a chance of rain by Friday.  Friday could be a little unsettled to early to tell.

This is a picture this morning of the frost at the house.

 On the temperature and rain outlook for the next 8-14 days looks average temps will be down.  Precip chances looks to be going up on the 6-10 day check out the lastest maps

Temperatures 8-14 day outlook

Precipitation 6-10 day outlook

If the weather changes I will keep you posted.

Drought Continues

This Summers drought is continuing into most of the fall.  We are in severe drought as it stands now.  The Bootheel of Missouri is in Extreme drought. 

Above State of Kentucky drought map. The forecast for this week looks grim with a small to no chance of rain. As you can see we are in the below forecast.





For the next three Months (November-January) temps will be above normal and rain is equal.  If you look at the precipation map you will notice Western Kentucky right on the edge of above average line, lets hope this area will be bigger or shifts our way some.
First map is Temp.



Precipatation Map November - January 2011


If things work out the closser we get to December the better the chances of rain.